_______________________________________________________ THE MEDIA POLL Number 2 January 10, 1997 _______________________________________________________ By John Marcus "Oh God--it's not just a one-off. . . ." Featuring: -LENO VS. LETTERMAN: DOES NEWS COVERAGE EQUAL RATINGS? -POPULAR ARTS IN REVIEW: TELEVISION: THE DEATH OF SUSAN Plus: -YOU HEARD IT THERE FIRST: FUTBOL MAMAS *and* -THE MEDIA POLL 10: U.S. POLITICIANS -------------------------------------------- LENO VS. LETTERMAN: DOES NEWS COVERAGE EQUAL RATINGS? HOUSEHOLDS, EYEBALLS, BOX OFFICE, bums on seats,=20 mindshare. Isn't the entertainment industry eloquent=20 when it comes to measuring its own performance? And=20 then there's the comparatively dull political=20 yardstick: turnout. And in their pursuit of generating households,=20 eyeballs, box office, etc., all the players in=20 Hollywood, Washington, Tin Pan Alley, and Broadway are=20 after the same thing: exposure. Armies of publicists=20 and spin doctors bombard the print and broadcast press=20 with endless volleys of sound bites and press releases,=20 aiming big and hoping anything might stick, because=20 there are hoary old maxims about the "Power of the=20 Press" that say "Any Publicity is Good Publicity." =20 Wasn't it this truism that made erstwhile presidential=20 candidate Ross Perot go and buy half-hour prime time=20 infomercials so he could campaign via the media, and=20 not the stump, by unleashing a kind of old school spam? THE MEDIA POLL WONDERS about all this. Although I have=20 experienced the effect of a single airing of an unknown=20 tune on BBC Radio upon the London record-buying public=20 (long ago at Our Price on the King's Road), and been=20 astonished by the importance of Access to Eardrums over=20 It's Got a Good Beat and You Can Dance to It, I've=20 always questioned the ability of "publicity, any=20 publicity," to automatically, unquestionably, spike the=20 charts in one's favor. In the corporations of America,=20 wouldn't Marketing then report to Media Relations, and=20 not the other way around? WHEN EXACTLY DOES DAVE LETTERMAN COME INTO THIS? Hold on. NIELSEN RATINGS, THE TOP 40, the New York Times Best=20 Sellers List: to get there you need exposure, and some=20 of the best comes in column inches. But is it true? =20 Is *any* publicity good publicity? And, if so, can=20 quantitative press coverage predict ratings success?=20 Let's look at Letterman and Leno. (In future Media=20 Polls, we'll look at the pop charts and 1996 election=20 results.) Coverage in Top 50 U.S. Newspapers (number of mentions) ------------------------------------------ Year Letterman Leno Carson O'Brien ---- --------- ----- ------ ------- 1996 5,645 3,828 1,226 896 1995 7,051 4,000 1,253 879 1994 8,643 3,944 1,906 1,222 1993 7,797 5,170 2,288 1,450 1992 3,994 4,370 4,703 2=20 Dave gets more press than Jay--period. Ever since=20 1993, when he pulled off something that hadn't been=20 achieved in decades (launching a successful late night=20 talk show on a network other than NBC), Letterman has=20 been written about 45 to 119 percent more often than=20 Leno each year in the top 50 U.S. newspapers. In 1992,=20 when he was still stuck in the 12:30 slot on NBC,=20 Leno's star shone brighter than his for the only time=20 in the last five years. THAT WAS THE YEAR Johnny Carson departed the Tonight=20 Show after 30 years, and the year Leno endured his=20 baptism of fire. The following year, Letterman left=20 NBC and started a new 11:30 franchise on CBS, causing=20 an unforeseen level of network hype, media hysteria,=20 and genuine audience interest surrounding the changing=20 of the late night guard. As Dave faced down his friend=20 and rival before millions of new viewers, seemingly=20 introducing a new golden era of late night television,=20 his press nearly doubled, far surpassing anything=20 generated previously by either Leno or Carson, and,=20 curiously, has remained at popcult superstar levels=20 ever since. (In 1996, three years later, Letterman=20 received 47 percent more coverage than Leno, and a=20 whopping 530 percent more than his replacement on NBC,=20 Conan O'Brien.)=20 WELL OVER A YEAR after Leno surpassed Letterman in the=20 ratings, Dave still reigns in print. A "media darling"=20 if ever there was one (only journalists could be so=20 affectionate about someone so cranky), David=20 Letterman's story in 1993 somehow topped Jay Leno's the=20 previous year. While the latter triumphed in their=20 battle to succeed the most powerful man in the=20 business--effectively getting the boss's job--the=20 former not only survived what many thought had been a=20 near-fatal career defeat, he came back on his own=20 terms, in his own time, and literally challenged his=20 opponent once again on a newly level playing field. =20 His story was so good it was impossible to resist, and=20 in the meantime, despite the fact that his show and=20 network are now floundering bigtime, Letterman's still=20 perceived to be the more vivid character, the more=20 quotable subject, and the bigger star. Which is enough to get you into the funny papers, but=20 apparently not enough to hold onto eyeballs. -------------------------------------------- YOU HEARD IT THERE FIRST First known use (in a major newspaper) of "Soccer=20 Mom(s)," voted Word of the Year for 1996 by the=20 American Dialect Society, a group of publicity-savvy=20 linguists: The San-Diego Union Tribune November 29, 1985 Interestingly, two of the first three uses of "soccer=20 mom" were in the Union Tribune, indicating that both=20 youth league soccer and the idea of "soccer moms"=20 gained momentum first in southern California. In fact,=20 for five years and with one exception, all mentions of=20 the term occurred in either the West or the South, in=20 papers like the Orange County Register, the Denver=20 Post, and the Atlanta Journal and Constitution. As the=20 chart below demonstrates, after barely registering in=20 the 1980s, "soccer mom(s)" began to increase in usage=20 in the early 1990s as it starting filtering through the=20 Midwest back East.=20 In 1995 "soccer mom" took on its first political=20 connotation when Sue Casey, a former aid to Gary Hart,=20 ran for the Denver City Council and used it to describe=20 herself to potential middle class voters in a Denver=20 Post story. Around the same time, an Orange County=20 Register story about a Dana Point, Calif. mayoral race=20 mentioned "the Little League dads and soccer moms"=20 active on a local political action committee. The=20 phrase really took of, though, during the presidential=20 election campaign of 1996. =20 On July 1, Time Magazine, in an article on the changing=20 face of First Ladydom, actually called Hillary Clinton=20 a soccer mom. Seventeen days later, the Washington=20 Post quoted Republican National Committee spokesman Ed=20 Gillespie saying, on reports of increased youth drug=20 use during the first Clinton term, "take that record=20 out to the soccer moms in the suburbs." The Post went=20 on to define "soccer mom" as "the overburdened, middle=20 income working mother who ferries her kids from soccer=20 practice to scouts to school." It cited soon-to-be- disgraced Democratic campaign advisor Dick Morris,=20 ironically, as the force behind President Clinton's=20 play for this supposed constituency as a family values=20 strategy. A few more mentions over the next few weeks=20 led to Newsweek's August 26 piece, "The Fight Over=20 Soccer Moms," which outlined Bob Dole's apparently long=20 odds in that battle and served as a clarion call for a=20 thousand more articles over the remaining four months=20 of 1996. Year "Soccer Mom" Mentions -------------------- 1996 1440 1995 56 1994 33 1993 23 1992 14 1991 12 1990 8 1989 1 1988 3 1987 1 1986 3 1985 1 Source: Dow Jones News/Retrieval full text database of=20 over 3,000 publications -------------------------------------------- POPULAR ARTS IN REVIEW: Television THE DEATH OF SUSAN SEINFELD IS STILL perhaps the only show on TV that=20 consistently breaks rules on purpose, and for this it=20 deserves our gratitude (even if we're getting a little=20 tired of it). For TV's arch conservatism in the rules=20 and formulae department is what keeps it ever stale- and keeps us from watching as much as we discerning=20 viewers might watch otherwise if more programs dared to=20 step out-of-the-box (to use a horrible pun dressed as a=20 smarmy clich=E9). One could make the argument that Seinfeld's one=20 formula-related sin is that it managed to create a new=20 one--one that's now been milked to death by other shows=20 on the same network (you know which ones I mean). But=20 that's a whole other topic. THE SHOW ABOUT NOTHING--the one with real-time scripts,=20 unbelievable reversals of fortune, and at least one=20 despicable primary character--went one step beyond at=20 the end of last season when it killed off Susan,=20 George's fiancee. =20 Or did it? I can't decide. The deal is this: George buys cheap envelopes for=20 wedding invitations to save money, they are toxic, and=20 Susan dies. George, who had been desperate but unable=20 to get out of the impending lifetime commitment, shrugs=20 his shoulders and immediately begins dating. It is=20 obvious he is glad the way things turned out between=20 him and Susan, and his friends, including Jerry, show=20 themselves to be only fractionally more compassionate. ON THE ONE hand, I agree with those--including quite a=20 number of serious Seinfeld heads on the alt.tv.seinfeld=20 newsgroup--who found this particular TV rule breakage=20 to be utterly unfunny (I think the rule is: "Don't=20 laugh at and then totally ignore the fact that a=20 primary character is dead"). It was ugly, cold,=20 cynical, stupid, and juvenile. =20 But then one has to ask: could the writers have=20 expected any other response? Are they (the writers) so=20 ugly, cold, and cynical that they thought we would=20 laugh? =20 The answer to both questions, I hope, is "no." =20 RATHER THAN to laugh at the unfunny, could it be that=20 the intent of Seinfeld's writers (who are, after all,=20 inveterate rulebreakers) was to purposely make Jerry=20 and company ugly, cold, cynical, stupid, etc.? This=20 is my theory. But the question remains: why? Either=20 they are motivated by professional mischief-making on=20 the merely daring level they have exhibited all along,=20 or else they are being truly subversive and testing=20 just how low a popular sitcom--and its arch loyalist=20 fans--can go. =20 What's next? Crazy Joe Devola pulls a Dahmer on=20 Newman, but Elaine and George are too preoccupied with=20 fighting over his vacant apartment to be anything but=20 non-plussed by the heinous crime? =20 THAT would test us. -------------------------------------------- THE MEDIA POLL 10 The Media Poll 10 ranks quantitative press coverage of=20 personalities in various categories. Over the next=20 several weeks, we'll look back at 1996 to see which=20 politicians, actors, and generic celebrity types=20 generated the most fishwrap. This week's category: =20 politicians. 1996 Top 10 U.S. Politicians=20 (by number of mentions in the top 50 U.S. newspapers) -------------------------------- 1 Bob Dole 70,310 2 Bill Clinton 39,801 3 Newt Gingrich 24,743 4 Ross Perot 15,637 5 Pat Buchanan 15,221=20 6 George Bush 14,031 7 Ronald Reagan 13,021 8 Al Gore 12,342 9 Steve Forbes 11,851 10 Jack Kemp 10,377 N.B. There is nothing scientific about the Media Poll,=20 but Jeez, so much for the liberal media bias, eh? -------------------------------------------- NOTE TO READERS Thank you for reading this far down the screen. I=20 realize this has arrived unsolicited in your newsgroup=20 or email box but I thought you might be interested. If=20 you think I have taken liberties by doing so or if you=20 are not interested in receiving future editions of this=20 column, please reply by email to xx609@prairienet.org=20 with the message: STOP. If you would like to subscribe to the Media Poll,=20 please reply by email to xx609@prairienet.org with the=20 message: SUBSCRIBE. Eventually I will have an automated mailing list=20 (Listproc) to distribute the column and a Web site will=20 inevitably be developed. (The truth is I already have=20 one but I'm witholding the URL for now because I don't=20 have time for HTML and so the site looks way too 1995.=20 . . .)=20 And many thanks to those of you who offered words of=20 encouragement and/or requested subscriptions after=20 reading MP No. 1--much appreciated. FUTURE MEDIA POLL TOPICS -The Ebonic Woman -The Bob Dole Effect -Madonna or Homelessness: Which Has the Better Publicist? Got an idea for a Media Poll topic? =20 Email: jmarcus@prairienet.org ABOUT THE MEDIA POLL THE MEDIA POLL uses online news databases to measure=20 media trends, coverage of current events, and the news=20 organizations that cover them. The Media Poll delves=20 deep into the data warehouses of vast, electronic news=20 archives, presses a few buttons and throws a few=20 switches, and then steps back--ultimately attempting to=20 make sense of the "findings," whether any sense is=20 there to be made or not. Sometimes, the "findings"=20 just speak for themselves. The Media Poll also includes=20 "Popular Arts In Review," which offers concise reviews=20 of pop music, TV, movies, and other garish ephemera;=20 "You Heard it There First," tracing the media-based=20 origins of contemporary catch phrases and slang; and=20 The Media Poll 10, a recurring ranking of people,=20 places, and things as measured by quantity of news=20 coverage. The Media Poll is Copyright 1997 by John Marcus