PropheZine #59 Monday June 2, 1998 Bob Lally Publisher Mimi Nila Senior Editor Rick Woodcock Asst. Editor Bob Lally.................Welcome Mimi Nila.................Brief Message ARTICLES Don McAlvany.............Global Cyber-Meltdown In the Year 2000 Gordon McDonald .........Putting Prudence into Practice R. G. Wallace................WHEN ARMIES MOVE A Dissertation on Armageddon from the Pre-wrath Perspective PROPHEZINE NEWSBYTES ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook ....... Bennett Hearing Finds Y2K Disclosure Lacking (Source Wash)Reuters.............FBI Unit Reports 'Substantial' Cyber Attacks Dennis Elenburg....................Rankings of the Y2K Experts Stephen Barr -Washington Post...........Pentagon Faulted on Year 2000 Reports BBC Online Network...............400-Year-Old Device Hit By Millennium Bug Craig Menefee, Newsbytes...........Year 2000 Bug? What's That? Say 38% In US Survey Lee Underwood ..............................F.Y.I. - Israel in the News ************************************* Greetings! In line with our inclusion of the entire Gary North Y2K website on the Prophezine website and search engine, we have designed this issue around Y2K articles. When you finish reading these articles and need additional Y2K information, head on over to the PropheZine search engine (http://www.prophezine.com/search/). We have included over 1,500 articles on Y2K. We need to increase our staff. You will be joining one of the largest bible prophecy websites on the net. We are averaging 27,000 visits per month (230,000+ hits) and this month we are growing at a rate of 20%. We have activity from 86 countries. We need additonal assistant editors (contact Mimi meems@ibm.net), prayer warriors (contact Greg gshambo@solve.net) and HTML coders (contact Scott sforsyth@uuproductions.com). In the next few weeks we hope to begin adding an additional 120 audio messages. We'll keep you posted (watch the home page for an announcement http://www.prophezine.com ). I have added a Chat Room which will you find from the Home Page. We will begin offering limited advertising on the web site. If you are interested in advertising please contact Bob Lally (bobslally@prophezine.com) for information. We thank you for your support and I ask that you please place the PropheZine Teams on your prayer lists as we certainly need them with this incredible and almost overwhelming growth. Bob Lally Webmaster ************************************* Hello to everyone, We at Prophezine felt this issue of Y2K is just a glimpse of the bigger picture to come. We are truly in the last days. For me this subject almost personal. As I have shared with you before Y2K is currently the means by which the Lord has allowed me to help my family financially. Maybe I'm just too close to Y2K to share my feelings on this subject. However, I would like to share our experience with you shortly about what it has been like sharing news of a catastrophic event to other people, non-Christian and Christian alike. Bad news, is not well received any way you put it, especially for non-believers. But even for my brothers and sisters in Christ, who know the Lord will return any second day or night, facing the prospect of some difficulties involving life changing events is proving to be a more challenging ministry effort than I ever thought it would be. People are not as grounded in the Word as I thought. If the full council of God is not taught, from Genesis to Revelation then we have been given an incomplete gospel. I am seeing the effects of that in some people who may be at a disadvantage being new in Christ, but there are some who have been Christians for years but ignore Prophecy and current events for one reason or another. The ministry opportunity to share the Glory of God and freedom in Christ is enormous. Some sisters and brothers in Christ, myself and my husband felt led by the Lord to start a Y2K awareness group biblically based, to help people understand where we were heading both for Y2K awareness and to minister to those who may feel fear or panic over this subject. Our intentions were and still are to help people not feel hopeless in a situation such as Y2K which can seem overwhelming. For those who felt led after much prayer to prepare physically for their family we wanted to provide them resources. And we wanted to also be there for those people who needed Christ centered counseling if necessary. Never did we intend to cause panic. However, it is almost impossible to ensure that everyone will take the information in a balanced way. We have experienced a certain amount of worry and fear from people and this is where the Holy Spirit graciously equips us to minister to those who will be hurting now and in the future. The blessing from the Lord during all this has been to allow our ministry group to prepare and be prepared at a time when others may need help physically and spiritually in dealing with this crisis. If the Lord had not given us the foresight to prepare ahead of others then we would be distracted by our own preparations and would miss the incredible ministering opportunities God will bring into our lives. Ezekiel33:2-6 "Son of man, speak to the children of your people, and say to them: 'When I bring the sword upon a land, and the people of the land take a man from their territory and make him their watchman, 'when he sees the sword coming upon the land, if he blows the trumpet and warns the people, then whoever hears the sound of the trumpet and does not take warning, if the sword comes and takes him away, his blood shall be on his own head. 'He heard the sound of the trumpet, but did not take warning; his blood shall be upon himself. But he who takes warning will save his life. 'But if the watchman sees the sword coming and does not blow the trumpet, and the people are not warned, and the sword comes and takes any person from among them, he is taken away in his iniquity; but his blood I will require at the watchman's hand.' May He Bless you and keep you, In His Service, Mimi Nila Mnila@ibm.net ************************************* Global Cyber-Meltdown In the Year 2000 By Don McAlvany "Forget about a silver bullet. It seems that in most mainframe programs, dates appear more often than M*A *S*H reruns on television about once in every 50 lines of code, with many computers containing millions, if not TENS of millions of lines. Typically, it's hard to find those particular lines, because the original programs, often written in the ancient COBOL computer language, are quirky and undocumented." - Newsweek, June 2, 1997 "Getting the Year 2000 issue right is critical for every organization. Failure to get it right will effect the integrity of the payments system and the performance of the domestic, and maybe even the global economy." - William McDonnough, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, 9/21/97 "The Year 2000 software problem... is likely to be the greatest challenge ever faced by the world economy. Its size, scope, and solution, as well as the immovability of its end date, are likely to show that it will be one of the most complex projects ever undertaken by mankind." Elmer Roberg, president of Business Transformation Services, South Africa INTRODUCTION The great awakening has begun! Corporate and banking executives, the heads of large government agencies, and even the management of the airlines have begun the scramble to become Y2K compliant. However, the majority of the general public and many small to medium-sized companies remain at this writing almost completely oblivious to the problem. And the mainline media (for the most part) continues to ignore, suppress, or minimize the Y2K story, just as they have ignored the Clinton scandals over the past five years. It is interesting that Bill Clinton, who has every reason to talk about and rally the American people around a Y2K compliance crusade (if for no other reason than to divert attention away from his Monica Lewinsky affair) has remained virtually silent on Y2K. The president did not even mention one word about Y2K in his recent State of the Union address. Is it possible that he and his comrades would like to keep the public asleep as long as possible, and then, when public panic ensues (which is likely to occur as we near December 31, 1999) declare a State of National Emergency. MIA has knowledgeable, sources in Washington who believe that this scenario could eventuate, and that if the Y2K crisis is as severe as the pessimists believe, that the State of National Emergency could be used as an excuse for canceling the Year 2000 presidential election. [ED. NOTE: It should be remembered that in a State of National Emergency, martial law will be declared and the Constitution suspended. Would Bill Clinton or Al Gore do such a thing?] As of 3/1/98, there were 670 programming days until midnight of 12/31/99 - until the world's computers will have to be Y2K compliant. How is the U.S. and the world doing? Not so good! Lloyds of London has announced that it will not insure airlines if the airlines and air traffic control system are not Y2K compliant. Currently there is not a single airline in the world which is compliant. Nor is any air traffic control operation in the world. IBM has told the FAA it will not support the 3038 mainframe computers which run the air traffic control centers around the U.S. after midnight, December 31, 1999. In doing so, they have basically said the computers cannot be made Y2K compliant and that they will not support them. The programming language is apparently machine language, which only a limited number of people know how to program. The FAA has added numerous corrections and additions over the years which make the entire air traffic system extraordinarily complex and difficult to fix. KLM Royal Dutch Airlines has said they will ground all their aircraft on 1/1/2000 and it is reported that American Airlines is planning to do likewise. Probably all of the world's airlines will be forced to follow suit. What if the shutdown of U.S. or global air transport lasts days, weeks, or months? What are the implications for the already fragile U.S. and world economy? Do you want to board the first airliner to fly after midnight 12/31/99? [ED. NOTE: Virtually all insurance companies are saying that the Y2K crisis is not an "act of God" and that they will NOT pay on disasters or financial losses precipitated by Y2K.J The 2/18/98 Wall Street JournaL, in a front page article entitled: 'Help Wanted. The IRS Searches For A World Class Computer Wizard," described how the IRS's chief information officer. Arthur Gross. who was in charge of the IRS' problem-ridden Y2K-comnliance program. has resigned for a better opportunity in private industry. [ED. NOTE: Is this something like the captain of the ill-fated Titanic jumping ship an hour before the great liner began its final death plunge? It's called "save your reputation.' The article went on to describe how IRS commissioner Charles Rossotti has hired an executive search firm (Korn/Ferry) to find a replacement for Gross and quoted Rossotti as saying: 'Mr. Gross's successor will face the biggest technology management challenge in the world." The article concluded: "Finding a replacement for Mr. Gross won 't be easy," a New York accountant warns, "when you get to work for the IRS at half the pay or less than you '11 get in the private sector." The IRS computer system is in serious danger of a major meltdown in the Year 2000 (see below for greater detail), but then so are many other federal government agencies and most of their counterparts in foreign governments around the world. The U.S. Government Office of Management and Budget's Fourth Quarter '97 survey of government agency compliance indicates that 10 of 24 agencies are critically behind in upgrading their systems. The 14 agencies which are supposedly making headway cannot substantiate or document their progress. A small sample of the agencies the 0MB Report says are in real trouble include: ESTIMATED DATE AGENCY OF COMPLIANCE Dept. of Labor & Energy 2019 Dept. of Defense 2012 Dept. of Transportation 2010 (including FAA) Dept. of Agriculture 2005 Dept. of Treasury 2004 (including IRS) GSA 2002 Dept. of Justice 2001 FEMA (Fed. Emergency 2000.5 Management Agency) It is awe inspiring to know that (according to the 0MB Report) the agency responsible for bailing us out of disasters (FEMA), or implementing a State of National Emergency, won't be ready for this one. Part I of this report on the Millennium Bug (the February '98 issue of MIA) defined the Y2K problem; why America will not be ready for Y2K; the problem of the elusive, embedded computer chips - estimated by some experts to be 30 billion in number worldwide, with 1.5 to 3 billion non-2000 compliant chips; the Y2K impact on the U.S. banking and financial system, the securities industry, business, the economy, and the U.S. electric power grid. This issue of MIA (Part II) will analyze the impact of the Millennium Bug on U.S. rail and air transportation; on U.S. national defense; on the IRS, Social Security, and Medicare; and on U.S. and global food supplies. It will explore the implications of Y2K for American cities; the U.S. legal system; the global socialists' thrust for a New World Order; and the convergence of three major crises at the same time over the next 6-18 months. The so-called "Rogue Wave" - comprised of the Asian financial meltdown. the scandals rocking the American presidency. and the Y2K computer crisis will all impact America simultaneously over the next year or so creating potentially the greatest political, social, and financial upheaval in American history. This report will conclude with recommendations to prepare for, and survive the Y2K crisis, including the acquisition of food reserves in the event that the U.S. and global food production/distribution system goes into gridlock in the Year 2000. (ED. NOTE: Already, a quiet run to acquire food reserves has begun - with supplies of same likely to be drying up or going into gridlock by early to mid-1999. And U.S. $20 double eagle gold coins are in the shortest supply in over 30 years. Knowledgeable people who understand the times are taking defensive action in growing numbers now.) THE IMPACT OF Y2K ON AMERICA THE IMPACT ON U.S. RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION The operational nightmare the Union Pacific Railroad is going through in its inept attempt to integrate its computer system with that of the recently acquired Southern Pacific is just one example of the crippling gridlock that is likely to eventuate from Y2K problems in advanced electronically integrated economies like ours. - Edward Yardeni, in an interview with Barron's (11/3/97) The average American who never rides a train, has no idea how dependent the U.S. is on railroads. Railroads in America today do most of the heavy hauling of such raw materials and staples as coal, petroleum, heating oil, chemicals, and food. Even millions of container-size truckbeds loaded with f inished goods are hauled by rail. Most large cities are primarily fed, warmed, and provisioned by the railroads, which carry most of the coal and heating oil which runs our electric power plants. Just one railroad, Union Pacific, moves 350.000 carloads of freight on a normal day. If the railroads. which are heavily computer dependent (100%) go down due to Y2K non-compliance. the lights will go out. the fuel will dry up. and we will run out of food - especially in large or medium-sized American cities. And it should be understood that of all American industries. the railroads are among the farthest behind in Y2K repairs. We are not just talking about payroll and accounting computers at the railroads - we're talking about computers that schedule and signal train movements to get them on location on time; that keep them from running into each other while en route; that operate track switching mechanisms; that track the exact location and movement of over a million rail cars (boxcars, tankers, flatbeds, top and bottom loading cars for wheat, corn, soybeans, coal, sulfur, fertilizer, plastics, and a host of chemicals upon which industry is dependent). For the railroads to continue operating, all these computers must continue talking to one another and to the computers of competitor railroads, suppliers and customers. If they can't interface. due to the Y2K problem. the trains will stop. the rail system will go into gridlock, and the U.S. economy will grind to a halt. Each rail car has a number on its side which is entered into a mainframe computer which routes and keeps track of the movement and location of that car. These cars, often owned by investors, are often transferred to other railroads. Evervthing is controlled by large mainframe computers which may be thousands of miles away. Up until the past 20 years, train orders, which were typically written out in longhand, were sent by an open telephone line from a dispatcher. These orders, which governed train movement, were handed up to passing trains, and switches were operated manually through a tower interlocking plant. The entire system was manual, it was simple, it was labor intensive, but it worked. Then railroad management decided to cut labor costs by adopting state-of-the-art computer technology to eliminate all of the operators and levermen, and issue the train orders via radio transmission directly to the train crew. Train crews were cut from four to two (an engineer and a conductor) and all the old switching towers were torn down and replaced with sophisticated electronics linked to the dispatcher by regular telephone lines. Today there is no manual switching. If the Y2K bug affects computers, power supply, and the telephone companies (as it is very likely to do), the nation's rail lines will grind to a sudden halt. If trains cannot receive their right of way train orders, no engineer or conductor will move his train an inch. No crew can move the train without authority from the dispatcher. To do so would invite disaster (a train wreck). If the Y2K problem shuts down the railroads, it would take years to rebuild the old technology (to rebuild the switching towers and their old interlocking machines, which use ancient electro-mechanical contact technology, rehire new towermen, signal maintainers, operators, etc. UNION PACIFIC - A CASE STUDY IN TRANSCONTINENTAL RAIL GRIDLOCK - Union Pacific is the largest railroad in the country, with 53,000 employees - carrying 350,000 carloads of freight on a normal day. By its own description, Union Pacific is "one of North America's leading transportation, computer technology, and logistics companies, with operations in all 50 states, Canada and Mexico." Union Pacific has developed a highly integrated system (totally computer dependent) that controls all aspects of railroad operation, including: 1. Billing and rating 2. Car and train movement 3. Empty car distribution 4. Freight car scheduling 5. Yard classification and inventory control 6. Car cycle inquiries 7. Intermodal system 8. Locomotive scheduling and maintenance 9. Crew dispatching 10.Work order management 11.Interline shipment monitoring In 1995, Union Pacific discovered that it had a Y2K problem with software programs which handle five-year scheduling, budgeting, and forecasting; and initially identified 12 million lines of code to repair. A company analysis revealed that 82.5% of the programs had date related fields, with 7,000 COBOL programs which needed fixing - requiring about 200,000 man-hours. In July. 1997, Union Pacific management acknowledged that only about 6% of its repairs had been made - with 94% still pending. Union Pacific is the farthest ahead in Y2K of any of the U.S. railroads - most of which have either ignored the problem. or have simply done no work to correct it. At present rates of repair NONE of the railroads (including Union Pacific) will be Y2K compliant by 12/31/99. Why did Union Pacific get distracted from its Y2K compliance repairs for two years? In 1996, Union Pacific acquired the Southern Pacific Railroad, and began to try to integrate the highly complex and diverse computer systems of the two railroads. Integrating the two has been a nightmare, according to Union Pacific spokesmen. The merger and resultant computer gridlock have been a disaster for Union Pacific and for the entire U.S. railroad system - giving a very useful example of the kind of gridlock which is likely to become widespread after January 1, 2000. The San Francisco Chronicle (10/11/97) carried an article entitled: Transcontinental Rail Gridlock - Merging of SP, UP Tracks Creates A Train Bottleneck, which illustrates the vulnerability of these (and all other) U.S. railroads: "When Union Pacific swallowed the San Francisco based Southern Pacific last year, it hoped the result would be the nation's biggest - and perhaps best railroad. Instead the merger is choking the UP and spreading chaos throughout the nation's rail system. It is the corporate merger from hell. The well-regarded Union Pacific took over the ailing Southern Pacific last year for $3.9 billion, but when it tried to put the two systems together the SP's problems spilled out of control over the larger line. "The result was rail gridlock that began with paralysis in a switching yard in Houston last summer and spread all over the West like a disease. Now it is affecting shipments of frozen french fries from Idaho to Japan, automobile parts, Amtrack passenger trains, even shipping containers full of stuffed animal toys bound from China for the Christmas market. It all moves by rail - or did. The Union Pacific is the largest railroad in the history of the country and carries 350,000 carloads of freight on a normal day. "The railroad says the southern corridor - from Los Angeles to Texas and the Midwest, has the worst logjam, but it also says jams extend on what it calls the central corridor, from the Bay Area to the Midwest, and up and down the coast as far north as Seattle. 'The problems are all over. We're seeing delays of anywhere between JO and 30 days,' said David McLean, director of marketing for Circle International, a San Francisco freight forwarding company that arranges transportation for other businesses. "The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the biggest in the country and heavily dependent on UP's unit trains, are jammed with cargo that can't move. The situation has gotten so bad that the railroad even offered to bring an American flag cargo ship out of mothballs and sail it from Oakland to the East Coast carrying stranded rail cargo. "Every railroad in the country is affected from the 35,000-mile-long Union Pacific to the 40-mile-long California Western "Skunk Line" in Mendocino County, which can't get enough flat cars to move finished lumber from a mill at Fort Bragg. "The beleaguered UP is so jammed and desperate it is diverting cargo to rival rail lines and even hired 200 trucks - delighting highway carriers that are the railroad's biggest freight competitors. 'The UP problem is a cancer that is affecting the whole system,' said Ed Rastatter, director of policy development for the National Industrial Transportation League, an association that represents 1,200 rail and truck customers. "The UP is in 'chaos,' said Brian Rosenwald, a Los Angeles-based Amtrack executive. The system's main lines are jammed with trains that can't move because of a lack of rail yard space, a lack of locomotives or a lack of train crews. It is, said one former Southern Pacific executive, 'a virus that is spreading out of control.' "The problems started when the Union Pacific tried to merge its train operations in its southern region with the SP properties it had purchased. Integrating two systems in a single critical rail yard in Houston blocked a major switching hub. It limited the merged line's ability to move cars between the West Coast and the Midwest and East, and the resulting traffic jam backed everything up, producing railroad gridlock. "Some shippers say it is taking a month to move a freight car from the West Coast to Texas. There is a backlog of 30,000 freight containers in Los Angeles/Long Beach harbors. One company directly caught up in the problem is San Francisco-based Chevron Corp. The oil giant has two chemical plants in east Texas that between them produce 2 billion pounds of polyethylene pellets a year. Both plants are served by UP lines. "'When Union Pacific has problems, we have problems,' said Mike Parker, general manager of Chevron's supply chain management in Houston. Parker says transit times for his rail shipments are averaging 25 percent to 30 percent longer because of UP delays. That lost time means problems for his manufacturing customers. 'Once things start to back up, the whole thing spirals down the production line,' he said. Chevron has already suffered lost sales and expenses are going up too as it is forced to hire trucks to get its product to customers. The company won't quantify its losses but is negotiating with UP to make up some of the shortfall. "The crisis began just over a year ago when the Union Pacific, based in Omaha, took over its oldest rival, the Southern Pacific, which had its headquarters at 1 Market Street, San Francisco. Both lines had long ties to the West, and together they formed the country's first trans-continental railroad in 1869. SP was for years the biggest and one of the most powerful rail companies in the country, but in recent years it had severe financial problems. In the early '90s it was a candidate for a merger. "'It started in mid-June, grew over the summer, was significant by August and extremely serious by the Labor Day weekend,' UP spokesman John Bromley said. In effect, even the company admits the problem spiraled out of control. As of yesterday [10/10/97], the Union Pacific was so jammed up, it wanted to move 40,000 railroad cars off the system onto other rails - enough to make up a freight train nearly 500 miles long. "The railroad has submitted what it calls 'a recovery plan' to the Surface Transportation Board, but admits it will take at least 90 days to straighten the problem out. The crisis might even threaten the life of some small lines. Because the UP's lines are tied up, the Northwestern Pacific, a 300-mile line that runs from Napa County to Eureka is getting only 25 cars a week from the Union Pacific to move freight. 'We could use 230 cars,' said executive director Dan Hauser." (End of article.) Union Pacific has found it almost impossible to merge its computer system with South Pacific's different system. In Kansas and other Midwest grain producing states, the rail service deteriorated so badly last fall that in Kansas alone. 24 million bushels of grain were never picked up by the railroad and delivered to market. Much of that grain will not get to market until next spring - a six to eight month delay. (ED. NOTE: When it arrives, it will be in a deteriorated condition.) According to the 10/13/97 Wall Street Journal, "The nation's largest railroad has lost its ability to track thousands of freight cars." The recent turmoil in Union Pacific's railroad system is a preview of coming attracttions of the sort of disruptions in rail transportation, shipping, manufacturing, retailing, and power generation that may become widespread after January 1.2000 - especially if (as now appears likely) none of the nation's railroads are Y2K compliant. Many old-timers say the current situation is the biggest railroading crisis in decades. THE IMPACT OF Y2K ON U.S. FOOD SUPPLIES Food shortages, nationally and globally, could be a natural consequence of a Year 2000 computer meltdown. Such shortages could result from failures in the power grid; banking problems which squeeze the credit lines of farmers and ranchers; social unrest which make food deliveries into the major cities dangerous or impossible such as during the Los Angeles riots in the spring of '92: or a breakdown in the railroad/truck distribution system which is highly computer dependent and, in the case of trucking, is highly dependent on the very Y2K vulnerable Global Positioning System. The world is believed to have only about 50 days of grain reserves. Most large American cities have only four to five days of food on grocery shelves or in food warehouses, while the average family only has two to three days supplies (or at the most a week). Many city dwellers eat the majority of their meals out - many of them at fast food restaurants - which must be resupplied with food every two to three days. Americans are highly dependent upon various parts of the social infrastructure to provide, cook and deliver food to us. What if the Year 2000 problem interrupts this finely tuned system? a) COMPUTERIZED INVENTORY CONTROL - A primary concern in a Y2K crisis is food inventories. Most grocery stores and restaurants (fast food or otherwise) must be completely restocked every few days. Razor-thin profit margins require keeping inventories low and using a 'just-in-time" (JIT) delivery mechanism to restock on a frequent basis. Much of the restocking of perishable goods takes place on a daily basis. Inventory levels in most supermarkets are not nearly as large as a casual observer might suppose. Accelerated buying in preparation for a snowstorm or hurricane will empty most store shelves within hours. The bottom line is that precise inventory management and a well-honed delivery infrastructure are crucial for maintaining the well-stocked grocery store which for granted. The same is true for restaurants. A Year 2000 problem can easily disrupt that delivery-inventory management process. Most large supermarkets would be lost without computerized inventory/reordering control, with dates and date calculations essential to the whole process. They could return to manual systems, but it would take weeks or months to make such a changeover. As Edward Yourdon wrote in Time Bomb 2000: "It is very possible that the inventory management systems, delivery scheduling systems. and much of the 'intelligence' that insures the Proper stockpiling of the proper items at the proper time may blow up on January 1. 2000 - indeed a few of these systems are already blowing up." [ED. NOTE: Marks & Spencer in England has already experienced Year 2000 date problems in its inventory. b) DELIVERY OF THE FOOD IS THE WEAK LINK - Transporting food items from the farm, the fishery, the bakery or the slaughter house to grocery stores or restaurants may be the biggest challenge in the Y2K crisis. This requires a vast, intricate network of ships, planes, trains, and trucks - all synchronized to deliver the right amount of food items while they're still fresh. The potential vulnerability of the transportation system (i.e.. railroads, trucking, air traffic) due to Y2K could "ripple" quickly into food delivery problems. Take New York City, for example - several islands with 8 million people - accessible by bridges, tunnels, boats, or planes. No food will reach the city except by boat, plane, train, or truck Massive quantities of food must be shipped in each day - mostly by trucks (either owned by large companies like Dole, Heinz, etc., by dairy companies, grocery chains or, in most cases, by independent truckers). In the first few weeks or months of the Year 2000, if America's computers go into gridlock, traffic lights, bridges, and tunnels may not be functioning properly especially if the power grid goes down nationally or regionally or brownouts or blackouts are occurring in New York. The welfare checks may have stopped, the banks and payments system may not be functioning properly, crime (shootings, hijackings, and robberies) will be up sharply: and police and fire protection (without their high tech communications) will be badly crippled. As a trucker living in New Jersey - food deliveries into the City have become more than a stressful aggravation - they have become dangerous. Under these circumstances, the supply of food moving into the cities by trucks could begin to dry up, food riots would follow, and the food shortages would begin to snowball. This scenario could be played out in Washington, D.C., Boston, Newark, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Miami, Denver, Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Francisco and dozens of other American cities. Rural or small-town dwellers will fare much better because they are closer to the source of the food, can barter with farmers or ranchers, or be more self-sufficient and grow their own food. c) GRIDLOCK IN AMERICAN RAILROAD AND TRUCK DELIVERY SYSTEMS - As discussed in the section above, America's railroads are almost 100% computer dependent and are not likely to be Y2K compliant. About half of America's total food movements (primarily bulk grains moving to food processors) move by rail. The present problems in rail deliveries may rise exponentially after January 1, 2000. Remember, the 24 million bushels of grain that sat at railheads in Kansas last fall, which never got picked up by Union Pacific, and which never got delivered to market. A USDA report on grain shipment problems entitled: 'Rail Problems Disrupt Marketing Plans" (11/13/97) gives us an interesting look into the future: "The 1997 crisis of Union Pacific Railroad is now a factor in US. grain shipments. Here is a recent United States Department of Agriculture report. It says that part of the problem has to do with incompatible computers. 'Rail shippers in many parts of the nation have been experiencing serious shipment delays and service disruptions since late summer. The impact of the current problems varies substantially from region to region and market to market. Grain shippers in the lower plains and western Corn Belt have been especially" hard hit by these problems. Western livestock and poultry feeders that depend on rail shipments of feed grains from these areas have also had to struggle to secure sufficient feed supplies to maintain their herds and flocks. "The service problems now plaguing many grain shippers in the western United States began in July on the Union Pacific (UP) in and around the Houston market. The initial problems appear to have stemmed from stronger than anticipated intermodal and petrochemical demand combined with UP'5 efforts to consolidate its operations with those of the South Pacific Railroad (SP). 'Among the factors contributing to the UP-SP consolidation problems were incompatibility of computer systems between the railroads, unsettled labor agreements that restricted crewing flexibility, and lack of adequate locomotive power to move trains. "With the fall harvest and increased demand for grain transportation, the UP's troubles have quickly spread to other areas and other railroads, especially the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF). "The current rail service problems are substantially different in nature than the types of equipment shortages and service delays that shippers have routinely experienced following many recent harvests. Since early September, grain car loadings on the major railroads have averaged 23,250 cars per week (3,200-3,400 bushels per car). This is down nearly 20% from the average weekly loading during the same period in 1996 when many shippers in the western corn belt and upper plains experienced serious equipment shortages and service disruptions. "Grain traffic on the three major western US. railroads - the Burlington Northern Santa Fe, Kansas City Southern (KCS). and UP - is also down this fall as compared with 1996 traffic. Weekly loadings on these carriers are averaging 16,300 cars per week, down 17% or nearlv 3.500 car loads ver week from the same weeks in 1996." CONCLUSION: Widespread U.S. and global food shortages are likely to eventuate in the Year 2000 as a result of the Y2K crisis. Major cities will be the hardest hit, with rural areas and small towns faring far better. Your best protection is to not live in a major city - and if vou do. to relocate. Secondly, you need to have a means of growing some food, store at least one to two years of food reserves, or both. Food reserves will begin to dry up by the second half of 1998, and will be very tight in the second half of 1999. FINAL THOUGHT - Are Americans prepared for the financial, social, political meltdown which could occur as a result of the Y2K crisis and which may be exacerbated by the Asian financial meltdown and the present Washington political scandals? Are they prepared physically, geographically, financially, psychologically, or spiritually for what could be the greatest crisis in American history? The answer to those two questions is a resounding NO at least for 95% (plus) of the American people who are either ignorant of the Y2K/Millennium Bug problem, oblivious to its implications for them, their families, jobs, or communities, or who are in downright denial. In a book entitled The Sovereign Individual, authors James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg wrote: 'A recent psychological study disguised as an opinion poll showed that members of individual occupational groups were almost uniformly unwilling to accept any conclusion that implied a loss of income for them, no matter how airtight the logic supporting it" It's called "psychological denial," and when these people finally do awaken to the crisis, they will panic and stampede in a dozen different directions. They will also become very angry that "they were not warned" or "protected" by the government, their employers, their bank, stock broker, etc. Proverbs 22:3 and 27:12 both say: 'A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it.,' (NIV) The King James Version says in the first half of that verse that 'A prudent man forseeth the evil and hideth himself" It is interesting that the verse is repeated twice, verbatim, within five chapters. In Proverbs 6:6-8, the ant is commended for anticipating winter and making appropriate preparations: "Go to the ant you sluggard consider its ways and be wise! It has no commander, no overseer or ruler, yet it stores its provisions in summer and gathers its food at harvest." The ant stores its provisions for a season; Joseph in the book of Genesis, stored food for Egypt for seven years. The principle of preparedness. while still trusting in the Lord and not worrying or being anxious over the "crisis of the day" is found throughout the Bible. The principle of flight from disaster or destruction is also found throughout the scriptures for God's people (i.e., "When they persecute you in one city, flee to the next,,, Matthew 10:23). The Bible is replete with examples of God's people fleeing from, or hiding from disaster. David (fleeing from Saul); Lot (fleeing from Sodom); Elijah (fleeing from Rahab and Jezebel); Moses (fleeing from Pharaoh - Exodus 2:15); Jesus (fleeing and escaping his persecutors and moving about secretly - "until his hour came" at the Garden of Gethsemane [Luke 4:28-30, John 8:59,10:39, 12~36]. Paul also did a lot of escaping by night and out of windows in city walls, though he was in no sense averse to dying and going to be with the Lord (Phil. 1:21-23). He, and many other believers simply exercised reasonable caution so as to not prematurely shorten their lives and ministries. These believers (including Jesus) were not afraid of death - it simply wasn't their time. In the history of Christianity, Christians have frequently fled en masse from dangerous places to safer ones. Jewish believers escaped from Jerusalem before the holocaust of 70 A.D. when Roman Emperor Titus killed one million Jews in that city; in 1685, 400,000 Huguenots fled France to escape persecution; Moravians fled en masse from their native Moravia to Zinzendorf' s estate in Germany; Armenian believers escaped to America before the Turkish massacre of those who remained behind. I have encountered hundreds of believers who fled the persecution in the former Soviet Union, Red China, and Cuba and dozens more who remained and functioned undercover and in hiding in the underground church in those countries. Many who remained by choice, necessity, or by the clear will of the Lord were imprisoned and/or martyred for their faith (millions since 1917 right up through today). In Luke 21, Jesus was asked by his disciples on the Mount of Olives what would be the signs of his return and the end of the age and He responded by describing a period of great deception, persecution, betrayal, and suffering. In Luke 21:20-21 He also warned of foreign armies coming against Jerusalem and indicated that believers should hastily escape the danger: "When you see Jerusalem being surrounded by armies, you will know that its destruction is near. Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains, let those in the city get out and let those in the country not enter the city." In a future period of chaos and upheaval in America, some people who understand the times will move out of the cities and into a small town, the country, or even the mountains. (This writer, his family, and company did so almost six years ago.) Others will remain in the cities because the Lord directs them to do so. But many will remain in the cities and make no preparations because of apathy, complacency, laziness, or denial - and many of those may fare very poorly over the next few years. In MIA's view, the place to be, as well as your level of preparedness should be based on the Lord's guidance and direction in your life. As Isaiah 58:11 says: "The Lord will guide you always he will satisfy your needs in a sun scorched land and will strengthen your frame." Psalm 37:23 says: "The steps of a good man are ordered by the Lord..." Psalm 107:30 says: "..and He guided them to their desired haven." If a person seeks the Lord on the matters discussed in this and other issues of MJA, this writer believes the Lord will give him or her wisdom, guidance, discernment and insight as to what to do or where to go as the foundations are being destroyed in America and around the world (Psalm 11:3). This writer believes that one can understand the times in which we live, make intelligent preparations for same, and yet not be anxious, fearful, or afraid. As Isaiah 41:10 says: 'Fear thou not; for I am with thee; be not dismayed; for I am thy God: I will strengthen thee; yea I will help thee; yea I will uphold thee with the right hand of my righteousness." Deuteronomy 12:28 says: "Observe and hear all these words which I command thee that it may go well with thee, and with thy children after thee forever,; when thou doest that which is good and right in the sight of the Lord thy God. "And finally, Deuteronomy 31:6 says: "Be strong and courageous Do not be afraid or terrified because of them, for the Lord your God goes with you; he will never leave you nor forsake you. "And that is the bottom line! Gold, Silver, and Rare Coin Brokerage & Consultation - International Collectors Associates - 800-525-9556 The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor (and its editor, Don McAlvany) is pro US Constitution; Pro-Biblical, traditional, and family values; is diametrically opposed to all forms of racism, violence, hate, or violation of any U.S. laws local, state or federal); and is in no way involved in the tax resistance militia or sovereign citizen movements in the U.S. Subscription information, Mail Problems The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor P.O. Box 84904 Phoenix, AZ 85071 800-528-0559 EMail mcalvany@indirect.com Editorial Offices The McAlvany Intelligence Advisor P.O. Box 84904 Phoenix, AZ Editor: Donald S. McAlvany Internet www.mcalvany.com ************************************ Y2K Update: Putting Prudence into Practice by Gordon McDonald No one likes to face the possibility of a catastrophic event. But the implications to the health and well-being of our family and friends requires us to entertain possibilities our fears would have us disregard. In other areas of life we commonly prepare for these non-linearity's, while resisting the practical implications of their occurrence. Most often, we call this insurance. After having dealt with several issues in last month's Y2K update, we will try to stimulate your thinking on other topics. We trust, as always, that all of your personal preparations are guided solely by the Spirit of God and not by fear or vain logic. Not all of these subjects will pertain to everyone. And certainly there will be, because of space and time, other topics not mentioned. Share your insights and discoveries with others. As in Acts Chapter 2, it may become necessary for the Church to once again band together after all these years of division. Coin of the Realmal ways seems they are no more than "just enough." We always seem to find ways of adjusting our life-style when more happens to come along. At whatever level you find yourself, it is time to assess what is discretionary and what is necessary. You need to somehow carve out, in whatever size, resources that can be set aside. For some this will seem impossible, and for others the problem will be what to do with it all. Those with more should consider those with not enough. The Bible quite often talks of diversifying the risk to your resources. This method, while costing something in the near term, does provide some protection against a variety of negative scenarios. It would be prudent to have a modest amount of cash on hand. If the banks start having trouble, it may become difficult to reach your money stored there. Many people found during the Great Depression that this can happen quickly. No matter how many resources Historically, in an economic the Lord has blessed us with, it downturn, the value of hard currency such as gold and silver has increased. Although the world in general, and the United States in particular, has in recent times one away from these standards, they are still thought of as secure resources in times of trouble. In extended monetary crises, during which services are disrupted, a barter system usually develops. The popular "currency" becomes various forms of commodities. Toilet paper, disposable lighters, coffee, tea, sugar and, in rural areas for hunting purposes, ammunition are good examples of storable resources that would increase in value in times of distress. It is important to remember that any of these "currencies" can be obtained in relatively small and, presently, inexpensive quantities. For those with retirement funds, IRAs, 4OlKs and resources of significant size, as always, find a good financial advisor with a similar frame of understanding for advice. What has been stated here is for no other purpose than to stimulate your understanding and awareness of these important and delicate issues. All The Comforts Of Home Although most certainly many of the effects of this crisis will be felt long before January 1, 2000, it is safe to assume the worst of it will occur immediately after the date change-in the middle of winter For a small portion of the population who live in warm climates, heating is not necessarily a grave concern. But for most of us, that time of year requires serious preparations to provide warmth to hearth and home. With the utilities in possible disarray, such necessities as heat and light can not be taken for granted. Those located in densely populated areas have fewer options in these regards, but they do have options. Depending on where you live and your present source of heating, an analysis of your present situation and possible future needs will help you determine the level of priority this area deserves. If you have a fireplace, it may be prudent to install an airtight wood stove. These, generally, are extremely efficient. Wood is easy to get and is an inexpensive fuel source for heating. Cold weather clothing, boots, sleeping bags and such items should be obtained based on need and performance. To pay a little more for an increased insulating efficiency will be greatly appreciated if cold temperatures set in. Closely associated in many areas with heating sources is power. We have previously talked at length about the severe risk to the power utility companies due to Y2K. Nothing makes a home more comfortable-next to warmth-as light~ In the event of a power outage, backup electrical systems could eliminate much of Y2K's impact. Things such as refrigeration and cooking can be accomplished with this type of resource. Candles, flashlights, batteries and matches are vital items that can be stored at a minimal cost. Parental Revenge It seems that parents spend much of their time encouraging their children to develop a hunger for learning. Now they have their revenge. After our parents have been largely ignored, the Lord has created a situation in which it is in our best interest to learn as much as we can as quickly as we can. The basics of life have, for the most part, been provided for us. But the computerized society in which we live has come at an expense. Much of the fundamental and basic knowledge of supplying our own needs has receded to the public libraries. It is time to dust off these volumes and regain the information and responsibilities we have abdicated. Because time is short, it would be wise to start acquiring, if you believe it important, actual "hard-copy" books on various subjects of practical concern. Subjects such as basic first aid, water purification techniques, wild game butchering, auto repair, disposal of waste, the basics of electricity, alternate communication methods, food preservation, and so on, would be good candidates with which to start a well-rounded resource library. What you can't learn now, you should at least have the information available to learn later. You will feel much more confident with such knowledge at hand. Priority One The most important topic has been saved for last. Upon sharing much of the data on Y2K with you and others, we have been criticized for causing unnecessary alarm. Although it can be argued there are times to be alarmed, it has never been our intention to elicit this type of reaction. It was hoped the data would stand or fall on its own. Our intentions were twofold. The first was to keep you informed on what may turn out to be a pivotal moment in history. And secondly, to start your thinking process in regards to preparation issues. It has been said that this could be the greatest opportunity for ministering the Word of God in the last thousand years. A case could be made that this period of time which is quickly coming upon us-is the greatest ministry opportunity since the time of Jesus. That should be our sole purpose and focus. The reason we prepare is to give advantage to the Kingdom of God. Everything we are able to accomplish besides that is "gravy." The local churches and the pastors that We live in exciting times. Times that will prove our faith. Holy men in times past have died longing to see our day. They would have gladly given up their place in history to see the culmination of all things. If those resources are not in place when there was enough time, knowledge and resources to do so, what is our answer to God's obvious question: "Why didn't you feed and clothe me?" We as individuals not only have a responsibility to our families but to our neighbors and anyone else in need. Without exception. To the exposing of our own need. We live in exciting times. Times that will prove our faith. Holy men in times past have died longing to see our day. They would have gladly given up their place in history to see the culmination of all things. The Church and the world will need our help and the answers from the Lord that comes with it. It is not a time to be afraid. It is not a time to run for the hills. It is not a time to become self-centered. It is a time to prepare to reach out to a hungry, frightened, confused and desperate world. Resources: Internet:www.y2kinvestor.com ,www.y2knet.com ,www.yourdon.com In addition to these web sites, a simple word search on any search engine (yahoo, altavista, etc.) will provide you with ample opportunity for "homework" in this area. Books: Stevens, James Talmage, Making the Best ofBasics: Family Preparedness Handbook, Gold Leaf Press, 1997. See page 28 for more information. Yourdon, Edward and Jennifer, Time Bomb 2000, Prentice Hall Computer Book, 1998. See the "Books" section of the order form on page 24. Back to Basics: How to Learn and Enjoy Traditional American Skills, Readers Digest, 1997. Encouraging The Serious Study of God's Inerrant Word. Visit our Website at http://www.khouse.org Special Offer...From Kononia House FREE for one year! Personal UPDATE is read by over 200,000 Christians each month ... find out why! The Source for Christian Intelligence. Biblical Relevance of Current Events. Information derived from public and private sources. Provocative insights into the Bible. 32 pages of wide ranging topics -Prophecy, Scientific, Personal Stewardship, Textual Insights, God's Love. Take us up on this offer! This offer is limited to first-time subscribers in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Western Europe. For outside areas, the cost is $40/year. You can call us at 1-800-KHOUSE-1, or write Koinonia House, P.O Box D, Coeur d'Alene,ID 83816 ************************************ WHEN ARMIES MOVE A Dissertation on Armageddon from the Pre-wrath Perspective By R. g. Wallace Part One of Nine INTRODUCTION From AD 30 until the inception of the 70th week, there will exist in the world, "wars and rumors of war" as the beginning of birth pains, especially for the people of Israel (Dan. 9:26c; Mat. 24:4-8). The Roman "prince who is to come" will bring a temporary end to that period of warfare by establishing the covenant of peace and religious toleration (Dan. 9:27a). For the sake of simplicity, I will designate this as M.E.P.T.A. (the Middle East Peace and Tolerance Accord). The primary focus of this covenant will be on the Middle East but probably extend world wide as this world ruler promises peace and security to the people of the earth. It is within this context that it can be said of Israel, she "has been restored from the sword," (Ezek. 38:8). This time of peace continues for 3 1/2 years until the world ruler receives a fatal head wound, probably at the hand of an assassin. This man will then be brought back to life by the power of Satan in the eyes of all the world. It is this event that brings the people of the world to his feet so that they elevate and honor him as a god. Then through that same Satanic power, he begins to act out the wrath of Satan toward God and God's people (Rev. 12:12-17; 13:3-7). He begins by taking "his seat in the temple of God, displaying himself as God" (2 Thes. 2:4), thus effectively breaking M.E.P.T.A. as he "puts a stop to the sacrifices and grain offerings" the Jews were performing in the temple (Dan. 9:27b). Jesus calls this the "abomination of desolation, spoken of by Daniel the prophet (Dan. 12:11), standing in the Holy Place" (Mat. 24:15), which begins the great tribulation of oppression and persecution for those who will not worship the beast (Mat. 24:9-29; Rev. 13:15-17). Once this "beast out of the sea" of Revelation 13:1, begins his reign of world dominion at the midpoint of the 70th week of Daniel, he promises economic security to those who will worship him and take "the mark of the beast." Thus, the world as a whole, will continue to proclaim "peace and security" as they rejoice in the economic programs of the beast and are able to participate in normal life activities without fear or distraction (1 Thes. 5:3; Mat. 24:38). Jesus said that it will be for them "as in the days of Noah . . . eating and drinking," etc. (Mat. 24:38), lulled to sleep by the economic security provided through beast worship (Rev. 13:17). The people and nations of the world continue to follow the beast as long as he can fulfill his promise of "peace and security." But when least expected, during this time of security (1 Thes. 5:2-3), and while the beast worshipers are afflicting the believers (2 Thes. 1:6-7; Rev. 13:7a; Dan. 7:21), the Day of the Lord will occur. (Mat. 24:29-31; Rev. 6:12-17) 1 Thessalonians 5:2-3 For you yourselves know full well that the day of the Lord will come just like a thief in the night. While they are saying, "Peace and safety!" then destruction will come upon them suddenly like birth pangs upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape. 2 Thessalonians 1:6-8 For after all it is just for God to repay with affliction those who afflict you, and {to give} relief to you who are afflicted and to us as well WHEN the Lord Jesus shall be revealed from heaven with His mighty angels in flaming fire, dealing out retribution to those who do not know God and to those who do not obey the gospel of our Lord Jesus. This "destruction" and repayment "with affliction" and "dealing out retribution" takes place in 5 stages. 1. The trumpets stage: Divine judgment (fire) poured out on the earth from the Day of the Lord arrival of Jesus until the end of the week (a period that covers anywhere from 8 to 36 months (Rev. 8-9). 2. The bowls stage: The final wrath of God poured out on the kingdom of the beast during the 30-day period which immediately follows the end of the 70th week. (Rev. 11:14-19; 15:1-16:21; Dan. 12:11) 3. The Armageddon stage: When Jesus comes physically down to the earth and destroys the invading nations in Palestine, which takes place in connection with the 6th and 7th bowl judgments. (Rev. 14:14-20; 16:12-21; 19:11-21) 4. The Separation stage: When the living unbelievers are removed from the earth after Armageddon so that the physical kingdom of Christ (Millennium) will begin with believers only. A. The separation of sheep and goats (Mat. 25:31-46; 13:36-43, 47-50). B. The separation of the fat and lean sheep of Israel (Ezek. 34:17-24). 5. The eternal stage: Lake of fire (2 Thes. 1:9; Rev. 14:9-11; Rev. 20:11-15). Once the Day of the Lord judgments begin to come upon the earth, the beast's ability to provide peace and security will be greatly impeded. Through trumpets 1-4, food supplies will be diminished, energy resources will be diminished and many plagues and disasters will affect the nations with the result that "many men died," (Rev. 8:11). Through trumpet #5, the people of the world will be severely terrorized for five months by the demon horde from the abyss and the beast will have no control over the attack. The 6th trumpet judgment is when the permissive will of God allows a kingdom power to move in opposition to the beast and seek world domination. I believe this to be the world-wide invasion of the king of the North which will culminate in the final battle of Armageddon in Palestine (Rev. 9:13-19). THE SIXTH TRUMPET Rev. 9:13-15, And the sixth angel sounded, and I heard a voice from the four horns of the golden altar which is before God, one saying to the sixth angel who had the trumpet, "Release the four angels who are bound at the great river Euphrates." And the four angels, who had been prepared for the hour and day and month and year, were released, so that they might kill a third of mankind. These four angels have been functioning in a restraint operation from before the time of John's writing until the present time. Whether they are elect or fallen is not mentioned, nor does it matter. The main point is to recognize that the general flow of history is controlled by God and nothing happens except what he sovereignly permits (Daniel 4:17, 34-35). These angels have been specially prepared for this specific time in human history to allow the unrestricted advance of a military machine of the like the world had never seen before (Joel 2:2). Rev. 9:16 And the number of the armies of the horsemen was two hundred million; I heard the number of them. The number designation of this army as it appears in the Greek (dismuriadoes muriadon) literally means twice (or several) ten thousand times ten thousand. It is suggested on the one hand to be a specific number of 200 million, and on the other hand to simply indicate an innumerable host. Many commentators of the past have discounted the idea of "200 million," as being quite impossible for any "then" known geographical area. However, in this century, the clear reality of such numbers is no longer in question, whether it be from the area of China or from a large alliance of nations which can be associated with Russia. DESCRIPTION OF THE ARMY Rev. 9:17-19 And this is how I saw in the vision the horses and those who sat on them: {the riders} had breastplates {the color} of fire and of hyacinth and of brimstone; and the heads of the horses are like the heads of lions; and out of their mouths proceed fire and smoke and brimstone. A third of mankind was killed by these three plagues, by the fire and the smoke and the brimstone, which proceeded out of their mouths. For the power of the horses is in their mouths and in their tails; for their tails are like serpents and have heads; and with them they do harm. This is viewed by most scholars as describing a military machine from the perspective of modern mechanized weaponry. Notice the similarity found at Joel 2:3-4, "A fire consumes before them, And behind them a flame burns. The land is like the garden of Eden before them, But a desolate wilderness behind them, And nothing at all escapes them. Their appearance is like the appearance of horses; And like war horses, so they run." It is in fact, the view of this writer, that the army of the 6th trumpet is the Northern army which is described at Ezekiel 38-39 and Joel 2:1-20. ORIENTATION First point of orientation is to recognize that the understanding of this invasion has nothing to do with the timing of the rapture. Therefore, the pretrib, midtrib, pre-wrath and posttrib positions are not pertinent to this study. However, this discussion will be flavored by definitions in terminology characteristic of the pre-wrath view of the rapture. The second point of orientation is to recognize that in the book of The Revelation, the seven seals, trumpets and bowls follow one upon the other in chronological order. Specifically, that the seven trumpets come out from the 7th seal and that the seven bowls come out from the 7th trumpet which sounds immediately after the ascension of the two witnesses, 1263 1/2 days after the midpoint of the week (Rev. 11:7-15). And that there is a 30 day period which follows the end of the 70th week, as indicated at Daniel 12:11, during which the seven bowls will be poured out upon the earth. The third point of orientation is to recognize that the 6th trumpet takes place toward the end of the 70th week, as is also acknowledged by John F. Walvoord: "Chronologically the trumpets involved closely succeed one another and their judgments seem to fall like trip-hammer blows as the great tribulation comes to its close." (The Revelation of Jesus Christ, page 166). In the articles to follow, I will guide you through every Old Testament passage that has major contributions to make concerning the Armageddon campaign. If nothing else, it will assist those who have a skeleton-scenario in their mind of these events to confirm and/or challenge your understanding. Grace and Peace -- End of Part One ronw@biblefragrances.com http://www.biblefragrances.com ************************************ PROPHEZINE NEWSBYTES +++++++++++++++++++++++++ ITAA's Year 2000 Outlook June 12, 1998 Volume 3, No. 23 Bob Cohen, Editor bcohen@itaa.org Bennett Hearing Finds Y2K Disclosure Lacking If public companies really understand the extent of their Year 2000 exposure, many are not saying so. At least that appears to be the conclusion of a hearing held this week by Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) and his Subcommittee on Financial Services and Technology. Although Bennett said the stock market has replaced real estate as America's "nest egg," the information being provided by numerous public companies on the status of their Y2K efforts is coming up goose eggs. Is public disclosure on Y2K in danger of becoming one big yolk? Sen. Bennett said that revised Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines to provoke more meaningful Year 2000 information from public companies has had a limited impact and said he is disappointed with the results to date. Appearing before the subcommittee, SEC Commissioner Laura Unger shared some of Bennett's dissatisfaction. According to Unger, "the quantity of disclosures is up, the quality is not." In her testimony, Unger tried to unscramble some of the confusion about the Commission's disclosure expectations. The issue is whether companies consider Y2K "material" to their operations, either because costs incurred to address the situation might cause reported financial information "to be not necessarily indicative of future operating results," or because the "cost or consequences of incomplete or untimely resolution" constitutes a material event which could be "reasonably expected" to affect future results or the accuracy of financial information. Referring to an SEC Staff Legal Bulletin revised last January, Unger said that the Commission provided guidance on determining whether or not Y2K should be considered material. According to Unger, "If a company has not made an assessment of its Year 2000 issues or has not determined whether it has material Year 2000 issues, the staff states that the company must disclose this known uncertainty. In addition, the staff states that the determination as to whether a company should disclose its Year 2000 issues should be based on whether these issues would be material to a company's business, operations, or financial condition irrespective of any remediation plans or insurance coverage." If companies find Y2K is material, the SEC wants to know "the nature and potential impact of these issues as well as the countervailing circumstances." Unger said disclosure should include general plans to address the issue as it pertains to business, operations and, as appropriate, relationships with suppliers, customers and other constituents. Disclosure should include the schedule for conducting the plan, an estimate of Y2K costs and an assessment of the material impact of such expenditures on operations, liquidity and capital resources. Boilerplate disclosures are to be avoided, Unger said, and information updated quarterly. Although Unger said that 70 percent of companies now include the term "Year 2000" in their annual reports, she indicated that most are still walking on eggshells when it comes to making meaningful statements. "The Commission is concerned," she said, "that while a greater number of companies mention Year 2000 in their annual reports, much of the disclosure is not informative. Perhaps many companies are not providing the type of disclosure specified in Staff Legal Bulletin No. 5 because companies are concerned that forward-looking disclosures would be a lightening rod for the plaintiffs' bar." Unger said an SEC review of annual reports filed by more than 1000 public companies found many not following the Commission's guidance for disclosure. The SEC results indicate that 65 percent of companies are either just starting or are in the process of determining the seriousness of the problem if no corrective action is taken. Forty-three percent failed to describe plans to remedy the situation. Sixty-four percent failed to provide a timetable for correction. Fifty-one percent did not describe material relationships with outside parties. Ninety-two percent made no mention of amounts spent to date. Seventy-eight percent failed to discuss future Y2K expenditures. Eight-six percent said the Year 2000 is either not material as to repair costs or operations or made no disclosure on materiality. The SEC official said that the Commission will publish an interpretive release in the near future to "formalize current staff guidance...[and] remedy the apparent misconception that the Year 2000 issue is material...only if the costs of remediation are material. The interpretive release will clarify that companies must, in addition to considering costs, determine materiality based on the potential consequences of inadequately resolving their Year 2000 issues." She said the forthcoming release may also form the basis of Commission enforcement actions against companies that fail to make adequate disclosures. Hearing Lights Up Y2K Power Grid Issue The Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 held its first public hearing today and released results of a survey that may dim the lights of the more sanguine Y2K prognosticators. The survey of the ten largest oil, gas and utilities companies found only 20 percent had completed their assessments of automated systems. Four of these firms were not able to identify how many embedded systems they have in service. One firm that had done its counting reported over 300,000 systems in service. The Committee survey found that these firms are not confident of their completeness or accuracy of assessments to date, "making assurances of timely Y2K compliance little more than a hope." Moreover, the Committee finds that the utilities' "ignorance" of supplier and vendor status creates "additional uncertainty for utility consumers." None of the companies surveyed had contingency plans completed. "I am genuinely concerned about the very real prospects of power shortages as a consequence of the millennial date change," said Committee Chairman Bob Bennett (R-UT). The chairman also expressed his concern that the Y2K issues is igniting so little spark with the general public. "I am concerned that when it does become a matter of general public concern it will be too late to bring public pressure to bear on the timely correction of the many Y2K problems that exist. My greatest fear is that when it does become a matter of general public conern, it will bring with it a measure of panic that will be deterimental to effective and efficient remediation..." "If tomorrow [were] January 1, 2000, it would be a 100 percent fact the power grid would fail...there's no question about it," Bennett said. Witnesses at the hearing were Department of Energy (DOE) Deputy Secretary Elizabeth Moler, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Chairman James Hoecker, Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chairman Shirley Ann Jackson, Y2K Czar John Koskinen, Consultant Lou Marcoccia, North America Electric Reliability Council (NERC) President Michehl Gent, Electric Power Research Institute Y2K Program Manager Charles Siebenthal, Sonat Inc. Executive Vice President James Rubright, and Gary Gardner, CIO, American Gas Association. Government officials appearing before the Committee generally described themselves as facilitating private sector action on the issue. "Let me emphasize that the Federal government cannot solve this problem," DOE Deputy Secretary Elizabeth Moler said. FERC Chairman James Hoecker said the Year 2000 is an "unusal challenge" for his agency because "the Commission does not exercise direct authority over these kinds of internal operations within regulated energy companies...The Commission's role is primarily to act as a facilitator and advocate, not regulator, on the Year 2000 matter." One of the primary focus points for action will be the network of interconnected electricity systems. NERC coordinates the reliability and adequacy of bulk electric systems in North America and NERC President Michehl Gent said "A major disturbance within one part of an Interconnection has the potential to cascade through the entire Interconnection. He added, however, that the loss of a facility or two would not trigger such a cascading effect. Rather, he said, the problem, if it comes, will take the shape of common mode failures "such as all generator protection relays of a particular model failing simultaneously, or the coincident loss of multiple facilities..." He called the possibility of such events extremely low, but conceivable. He also pointed out that an individual electric utility investing big bucks in its Y2K correction could see its investment trip over the less than diligent efforts of neighboring systems. Gent said the greatest Y2K threats for the electricity supply are power plants with digital controls, energy management systems used to operate transmission facilities and control generating units, telecommunications, and relay protection devices. Gent called maintaining the operability of bulk electric systems perhaps "the single most important step toward supporting our North American infrastructure during the Y2K transition." NERC's "defense-in-depth strategy" involves identifying and fixing known problems, sharing information on known and suspected problems, creating a master list of Y2K problem areas, initiating a progress reporting process, regional and individual system simulations to identify moderate and worst-case scenarios, coordinating development of operational preparedness and contingency plans and coordinating efforts to operate transmission and generation facilities in precautionary configurations and loadings during critical Y2K periods. Gent seemed to get charged up by the notion that some companies may be holding back on their Y2K information. "The success of the NERC Y2K program depends on unbridled cooperation, full sharing of Y2K information, and diligence of effort commensurate with the potential consequences of failing to adequately prepare for Y2K," he said. Later, he added, "Public exchange of information is a cornerstone of NERC's Y2K program and must not be viewed by utility participants as feeding information to potential litigants....Any restraint in sharing known Y2K problems and solutions will be a direct challenge to the reliability of the electricity supply." He also took on the Chairman's "what if Y2K were tomorrow" formulation. "I have to take issue with the stated 100 percent failure rate of utilities," Gent said, "I know of several companies that have run tests of their systems." Referring to the fact that the date change will make its way through several time zones before reaching the U.S., Gent said, "We have an excellent communication system, and we can take advantage of the natural time-lag to see and monitor what is happening." Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) queried the government witnesses on the lack of a comprehensive assessment on the status of the grid. Some of the government executives acknowledged that such an assessment does not exist. Y2K Czar John Koskinen said that the government has no regulatory authority to demand this information, and he does not propose that the federal government be granted the power to obtain it. Rather, Koskinen said the utilities should be informed that government is ready to work with them. "Time is the vanishing resource," he said. Y2K appears to be generating a significant amount of electricity among Washington lobbyists. The hearing drew an overflow crowd, forcing Committee staff to open a second room to handle the crowd. Speaker Says Y2K will Bug White House House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) suggested this week that the Year 2000 date issue could be a significant barrier in Vice President Gore's bridge to the White House in the next presidential election. As first reported by Newsbytes, Gingrich said nothing could be "more destructive for Gore's political future than to talk about the information superhighway" while the "largest wreck in history" occurs on January 1, 2000. California CIO Says Y2K Costs Likely to Double Speaking today at an ITAA-produced Y2K seminar in Santa Clara, CA, California CIO John Thomas Flynn predicted that the Golden State will be spending more gold than expected on its Y2K correction. He estimated that the current $243 million budget will grow to over $500 million before the last bad date is purged from the state's information systems. Flynn said that half of the state's 3000 systems are impacted by the date change issue, and half this 1500 are considered mission critical. He said that the state appropriated an additional $55 million in Y2K fix-it funds this year, and Flynn said he was disappointed that $4 million of this total went unclaimed by state agencies. Despite the anticipated increase in Y2K expenditures, Flynn said he is sticking by the state's completion schedule, with all mission critical systems due to be done by the end of this year. He called the deadline ambitious but doable. Testing, he said, is proving difficult and some software considered ready for testing has been sent back to the bench for additional repairs. Flynn mentioned other California government initiatives, including a task force of state officials meeting regularly with municipal and county counterparts on the issue. Noting that the state's level of contingency planning is in need of work, Flynn said his Department of Information Technology has created a contingency planning template for use by other state agencies. California Assemblyman Mike Honda (D) also spoke at the seminar and said he has introduced two Y2K-related measures. AB 2458 would provide a 20 percent tax credit to small businesses grappling with the Millennium Bug. He said the measure has generated an apathetic response from the state's Chamber of Commerce. The Assemblyman has also introduced AB 1934, a bill to create incentives for organizations acting responsibly in their Y2K repairs; he said he solicits input on the measure. For more information, please send email to info@y2kplus.com, visit our web site at http://www.y2kplus.com or call Dave Ehlke at 781-863-8111. +++++++++++++++++++++++++ FBI UNIT REPORTS 'SUBSTANTIAL' CYBER ATTACKS (Source Wash)Reuters June 11, 1998 7:28 AM PT WASHINGTON --It was reported to a Senate panel on Wednesday by the head of a new U.S. cyber law enforcement agency the that a "half dozen" substantial attacks had been launched since February against U.S. government computer systems. Refusing to elaborate, Michael Vatis, the chief of the National Infrastructure Protection Center (NIPC) of the FBI, said pending investigations prevented him. Lawmakers asked how many of the computer attacks he had witnessed since February.... when the NIPC was created,-- were considered "substantial" and separate from routine computer"hacker" attacks. Vatis told the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Technology, Terrorism and Government Information."I would say somewhere in the vicinity of a half dozen of what I would consider substantial, ones that we are still investigating to determine in fact whether they are significant or whether they're really part of the noise that exists almost everyday The Senate subcommittee met to hear from administration officials about the latest steps to counter attacks on critical U.S. computer infrastructure. California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the ranking Democrat on the panel, asked Vatis if the half dozen or so substantial attacks involved military computers at the Department of Defense (DOD). Vatis would not respond directly, citing the probes, but stressed that DOD was always a target. "Because DOD is such a prime target for even individual hackers who want to test their skills, a good percentage of the incidents we see all the time involve DOD. They see the Department of Defense as the big banana, the final exam, the ultimate challenge to test their skills," Vatis said. Senators were also briefed on last year's DOD exercise, code-named "Eligible Receiver," which exposed U.S. vulnerabilities to cyber attack. Early warning system The NIPC was formed in response to concerns about the safety of national computer systems and charged to detect, deter, warn, respond to and investigate unlawful acts involving intrusions and other threats against vital infrastructures. Arizona Republican Sen. Jon Kyl, the subcommittee chairman, said the U.S. should gird for a cyber attack against military computers with the same urgency as the military prepared for more traditional physical attacks. "Today, because of the networked nature of our critical infrastructures our enemies needn't risk attacking our strong military if they can much more easily attack our soft digital underbelly," Kyl said. President Clinton on May 22 signed two directives designed to strengthen defenses against terrorism and other unconventional threats, and formed working groups of public and private groups to work on a coordinated strategy. Terrorist threat Administration studies showed that an attack by a foreign government or group, or domestic terrorists, could not only harm military operations but disrupt banking and finance, create power outages, interrupt transportation nodes and crash entire communications networks. Vatis said some of the immediate issues under discussion were efforts to determine budget requirements, create an attack detection and warning system, determine legal authority and legislative requirements and devise a cohesive intelligence collection process. In late February, the Pentagon and FBI investigated a series of successful efforts by computer "hackers" to obtain information from military computers. The break-ins came at the same time U.S. forces were being marshaled for a possible attack on Iraq. +++++++++++++++++++++++++ Rankings of Y2K Experts By Dennis Elenburg and Russ Kelly I received the Y2k expert ranking information in a forwarded email from a Y2k Weatherman subscriber. I attempted to verify these rankings by contacting all the Y2k experts listed below. I later discovered that this information comes from Russ Kelly's website. (Special thanks to Gary North for pointing this out to me.) You can go to the source of this information here: http://www.russkelly.com/experts.html The info below is a bit different from Russ Kelly's website. I didn't include all the same people he does. I asked Roleigh Martin and Harlan Smith to add their rankings to the list, so you won't find them on Russ Kelly's site until he updates it. Roleigh and Harlan are two highly qualified experts on the embedded system problem. Also, Adam Kaplan sent me an update (added .5 to his ranking). I'll update this post in the Y2k Weatherman Report Archive and notify you of changes in the email reports if anyone raises or lowers their ranking. Archived at http://y2kwatch.com/showart.php3?idx=69&rtn=y2kman.htm Here is the intro from Russ Kelly's site: Below is a list of individuals that are the most widely quoted authorities on "Year 2000" issues. A short biographical background is given for each individual when available. Rankings are based on the extensive monitoring of the forums, web sites, newsletters, published articles and books, and in many cases, personal contact with the individuals, by Russ Kelly (and Dennis Elenburg too). In some cases, the individuals ranked themselves. The purpose of the rankings is so that we can monitor the "seriousness" trend. It is mostly of academic interest where we are at the moment. What is of critical importance, is the direction we are going. Is it getting better, or is it getting worse? Have we waited too long to get it all done, or is the "undone" really unimportant after all? Overall Ranking average: 7.27 And the rankings are... --- David Starr. Ranking of problem- 1. Chief Information Officer of Readers Digest. [Note from the Y2k Weatherman: Incredibly, a lot of CIO's are in the same "head in the sand" boat. That is why we have such a big problem on our hands. However, if Reader's Digest goes out of business our global infrastructure won't collapes, so I don't see Mr. Starr's lack of vision being much of an issue unless you happen to be employed by Reader's Digest. Worst case is a few people might panic for lack of reading material to stack on the back of their toilet.] --- Dr. Leon Kappleman. Ranking of problem- 6. Associate Professor at Univ. of North Texas, Chair and Co-Chair of Computer and Year 2000 groups. (http://www.year2000.unt.edu/kappelma/) --- Alan Simpson. Ranking of problem- 8. Author. Information Technology executive. International broadcaster and speaker. Satellite communications pioneer. (http://www.comlinks.com/) --- Gary North. Ranking of problem- 10. Historian (Ph.D. in history) prolific author. No known information technology background. (http://www.garynorth.com/) Statement from Gary (June 1998): "The litmus test of 10 status -- the far end of the spectrum -- is one's opinion on the survivability of the power grid. This is where the target stops moving. You don't need to grade on a curve anymore. Anyone who says the entire grid will go down for 60 days rates a 10. I say I see no reason why it won't fail, but I do not predict a sure thing. I can be displaced by someone who says it's a sure thing, unless I match his bid. But raising it to 6 months or 6 years won't affect 10 status; 60 days is enough to shut down the West." --- Adam Kaplan. Ranking of problem- 7. Editor of Westergaard Year 2000 (http://www.y2ktimebomb.com), a daily-updated Internet publication offering a strategic analysis of the Y2K Problem. At Westergaard Year 2000, leading Y2K experts from all over the world write regular feature articles in the areas of Y2K that matter most-- the economy, the international dimensions of the Problem, Washington, the legal aspects, and more. --- Ed Yourdon. Ranking of problem- 8. Prolific author, 30 year programming pioneer, B.S. in applied mathmatics from MIT. (http://www.yourdon.com/) --- Russ Kelly. Ranking of problem- 8. 35 year software development pioneer, speaker on year 2000 issues, editor of "Kelly's Year 2000 Digest", and weekly radio talk show host of "Year 2000 and You." (http://www.russkelly.com/) --- Peter de Jager. Ranking of problem- 6. Canadian. Advisor to several government task force groups. Frequent speaker to U.S. house and senate technology committees. 6 years dedicated to y2k issues. (http://www.year2000.com/) Statement from Peter (June 1998): "The Y2k Problem is real. If unfixed, it will cause chaos. Treated with the respect it deserves, Y2k can be solved sufficiently to avoid chaos and merely be painful." --- Dr. Ed Yardeni. Ranking of problem- 8. Doctorate in Economics from Yale. Present and former Chief Economist for several leading Wall Street firms. Highly regarded for his past accuracy in predicting economic conditions. (http://www.yardeni.com/y2kbook.html) --- Scott Olmsted. Ranking of problem- 8. Doctorate in Engineering-Economic Systems from Stanford. 20 year software veteran. (http://www.prepare4y2k.com/) Statement from Scott (June 1998): "Y2K at best will cause intermittent interruptions of goods and services followed by a recession, and at worst will bring much of the world economy to a virtual halt, with failures at every level, including government, banking, shipping, and utilities, resulting in tremendous hardship for most Americans. There is simply no way to know with any certainty how it will unfold. The possible bad outcomes are so great, however, that it is rational to prepare for at least some of them." --- Joe Boivin. Ranking of problem- 9.5. Canadian, Year 2000 banking and management expert. Former Director of Year 2000 program for Canada's second largest bank (CIBC). President of the Global Millennium Foundation, a non-profit, non-partisan, organization committed to developing national and global level solutions to the Year 2000 technological crisis. (http://www.globalmf.org) --- Roleigh Martin. Ranking of problem- 5 to 9. Master of Arts in Sociology, 21 years in Data Processing, Writer and Speaker on the Y2K Embedded Systems Threat, Webmaster, (http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin) Statement from Roleigh (June 1998): "The ranking depends on how remediated and/or prepared your geographical region is for whatever happens; those who are will probably painfully survive through it suffering a "5" level average set of problems; those regions, including outside the USA, who are very poorly remediated and are not prepared, some of them will suffer a "9" level average set of problems. The only reason the range does not include 10 is that 10 is defined as universal and I see it as "spotty." The reason I did not include numbers less than 5 is that some impacts will affect all communities regardless of their preparations, such as fuel shortages, stock market decline, etc." --- Harlan Smith. Ranking of Problem- 7.5. Electronics engineer (retired) with 36 years experience of working on complex military radar systems. Author of "Synergistic Mitigation and Contingency Preparation" (http://2000.jbaworld.com/people/smith_h.htm) Statement from Harlan (June 1998): "My first priority is to encourage governments around the world to stop talking about the year 2000 problem and get on with solving it. The US was one of the first to get going on the problem however, their strategy seems to be "full remediation" i.e. lets try and fix everything in time. What needs fixing? Basically the infrastructure we rely on each day from power plants and rail roads to defense. Our biggest problem is time. We don't have enough for full remediation - so should we give up? No - the answer is to identify the minimum requirements from our infrastructure (global triage), and then work towards building this austere infrastructure and supplement it with contingency plans." --- Dennis Elenburg Ranking of problem- 7.77. No-name grunt Y2k project manager for a major telco and author of the preparedness focused "Y2k Weatherman Report." (http://Y2kWatch.com/) Statement from Dennis (June 1998): "I'm optimistic that most basic utilities and services (other than government) affected by Y2k will come back online before the dreaded Y2k leap year of 2/29/00. My main concerns are (1) electrical power (especially nuclear generated in other countries), (2) telecommunications (voice and data) and, (3) the almost certain financial holocaust (which may occur b/f Y2k). If the "iron triangle" of electrical power, telecom, and banks goes down hard and stays down, then my ranking will jump to 10. My optimistic economic forecast, even if the "iron triangle" survives, is economic hardship on par with the 1930s Great Depression." == * Dennis Elenburg, "The Y2K Weatherman"